European monetary union: Turkey’s prospects for joining

Abstract

The thesis examines the likely effects on the European Community of the prospective European Monetary Union (EMU). It examines some of the structural problems which the newly joined but less developed members encountered on joining the customs union and then the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). Analogies are drawn between these events and what might happen were Turkey to join first the customs union, then the ERM and finally the EMU. The status of Turkey as an Associate Member of the EC since 1963 is compared with countries in the European Free Trade Area and Eastern Europe. The main conclusion is that a further decade of successful structural reform would enable Turkey to benefit from joining an EC which continued on the same path for a further decade, and to benefit from joining an ERM in a wide band, but joining an EMU is unlikely to be beneficial.