The ranking technique as an aid to decision making

Abstract

This thesis examines the capability of the Risk Ranking Technique as an aid to decision making. First the nature of the Risk Ranking Technique is described and its capability demonstrated by applying it in a post hoc way to the Channel Tunnel decision. Then to provide a basis for comparison the methods banks use to assess the acceptability of financial risk they are exposed to are examined. This is followed by examination of the problems of assessing technical, economic and socio-political aspects of risk. Then the adequacy of the theoretical basis of the Risk Ranking Technique is analysed. This is followed by examination of the range of possible alternatives to the Risk Ranking Technique. The efficacy of these alternatives is then compared with the Risk Ranking Technique by applying them to three major decisions. Finally a comparison is made of the Risk Ranking Technique with the methods used by the banks and insurance companies to assess the acceptability of risk. The main conclusions from the study are:-1) Of the techniques examined the Risk Ranking Technique is the only one that is based on comprehensive assessment of technical, economic and socio-political factors involved in a decision.2) The Risk Ranking Technique is transparent to the proposer and the lay public.3) There is a logical structure to the Risk Ranking Technique.4) With the Risk Ranking Technique and the other techniques considered their efficacy as aids to decision making is enhanced if the criteria they use are tailored to suit particular families of decisions.5) The comparison of the Ranking Technique with the methods used by the Banking and Insurance industries shows something of the range of criteria that may be required for particular applications.