The effects of goals on forecasting error in chaotic situations using a control task

Abstract

Two experiment were designed to investigate the cognitive patterns that people used in learning to forecast, specifically, the effects on forecasting produced by different learning goals. A control task formerly employed by Harvey (1990) was used in the present experiment. Participants were instructed to interact with computers and engaged in a mock medical decision-making task, in which patients with mood disorders were treated by psychiatrists. The pattern of mood disorders was characterised by a chaotic formula. Participants were divided into groups having different goals. The results showed that goals has a significant effect on learning, which affected the performance of participants when making judgements and the patterns in forecasting. The results were discussed in terms of the learning types of either rule searching or problem solving. With a problem solving goal, participants tended to learn instances; with a rule searching goal, participants tended to learn rules.