Bayes Linear Variance Learning for Mixed Linear
Temporal Models

Abstract

Modelling of complex corroding industrial systems is ritical to effective inspection and maintenance for ssurance of system integrity. Wall thickness and corrosion
rate are modelled for multiple dependent corroding omponents, given observations of minimum wall thickness per component. At each inspection, partial observations of the system are considered. A Bayes Linear approach is adopted simplifying parameter estimation and avoiding often unrealistic distributional assumptions. Key system variances are modelled, making exchangeability assumptions to facilitate analysis for sparse inspection time-series. A utility based criterion is used to assess quality of inspection design and aid decision making. The model is applied to inspection data from pipework networks on a full-scale offshore platform.