The expectations clock: a model for leadership, reversion, and over- and under-reaction

Abstract

The expectations clock illustrates how expectations of future performance are driven by human biases tied to current and past changes in relative performance. The clock is a model of reversion and over- and under- reaction. Depending on initial expectations, disruptive events (or change events) may have different relationships with future performance. Leadership succession is utilized as a proxy for disruption and over- and under-reaction refer to reactions to negative circumstances. The interaction of expectations and disruption may be associated with a counterintuitive inverse relationship with future relative performance. When expectations are low, disruption may be related to over-reaction and when expectations are high disruption may reduce under-reaction. This occurs if expectations cycle, much like a clock, since the level of expectations is related to the level of inertia. Expectations appear to revert; although, the expectations clock exhibits "stickiness” at key points. Stickiness refers to how top and bottom performing institutions tend to rotate between improving and deteriorating performance but not cross over between the bottom and top halves, respectively. Disruption (or lack of disruption) at key points may influence reversion and stickiness. Contrary to prior studies, this research finds no relationship between initial expectations and the succession event itself.