The rise of the IS and its impact on
the relationships between Kurdistan,
Iran & Turkey

Abstract

The rise of the Islamic State (IS) has significantly impacted the political landscape of the Kurdistan
Region of Iraq (KRI) and its relationships with neighbouring countries, particularly Iran and
Turkey. This study seeks to understand the impact of the IS on the political relations between the
Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), Iran, and Turkey between 2003 and 2017. The broad research
question is to understand how the IS has shaped the KRI-Iran and KRI-Turkey relations during this
period. The objectives of this research are to investigate the mechanisms and effects of the IS on
political relations of the KRI and the region, to contribute to the limited literature on the political
relations of the KRI, and to make a significant contribution to the understanding of the complex
political relations between Iran, Turkey, and Iraq with the KRI region. This research is guided by
the Regional Security Complex Theory, which emphasises the importance of regional context in
shaping security policies and practices. The methodology employed is a qualitative approach,
utilizing documentary sources, content analysis and semi-structured interviews with 14 key
political figures in the KRI, Iraq, and Turkey. The data was analysed using the thematic analysis
method. The findings of this study indicate that the IS has had significant effects on the political
relations between the KRI, Iran, and Turkey. It has influenced regional politics in numerous ways,
including contributing to the formation of a new security complex in the region. This complex is
characterised by competing interests and conflicting alliances among various actors, including nonstate
actors (like the IS) and KRI, as de facto state, as well as state actors like Iran and Turkey. Firstly,
Iran’s wariness of the KRI’s increased autonomy, and US support, gave way to bigger concerns
over the IS encroachments, which led to anti-IS cooperation between the KRI and Iran, which was
replaced by confrontation at the point of the IS’s fall. On the other hand, Turkey’s complex
relationship with the KRI has developed from hostility to cooperation, witnessed initial distrust and
uncertainty with the IS’s advance towards Erbil, moved towards cooperation, and once again
fluctuated as the IS was defeated while the KRI continued with its plans on an independence
referendum. Secondly, the study found that non-state actors, particularly the IS, have played a
significant role in shaping the regional order. The KRI's increasing autonomy and military strength
were seen as a threat by Iran and Turkey, who sought to contain the KRI's influence in the region.
Meanwhile, the IS's presence and actions in the region had a destabilising effect, exacerbating
tensions between neighbouring countries and leading to increased military intervention by external
actors. The contributions of this research are both theoretical and practical. Theoretically, this study
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develops the theory by showing how regional security complexes are formed and how non-state
actors, such as the IS, and the de facto state, the KRI, can shape regional politics in addition to
government-centric view of traditionally viewing only the role of states. Practically, it provides
policymakers and practitioners with valuable insights into the impact of the IS on regional politics
and the importance of understanding the regional context when formulating security policies. The
study's contributions lie in its exploration of the complex political relations between the KRI, Iran,
and Turkey, and how those relations were shaped by the rise of the IS. By using the regional security
complex theory, the study provides a framework for understanding the ways in which regional
dynamics and power struggles impact political relations in the region. Additionally, the study
contributes to the limited literature on political relations in the KRI, providing valuable insights
into the region's political history and current state of affairs.