Future-proofing conservation: applying
systematic conservation planning to
prevent extinction under climate and land
use change

Abstract

Humans have been reshaping the environment of Earth for thousands of years. However, the
intensity of anthropogenic pressures has rapidly increased in recent decades, pushing an evergreater number of species towards extinction. The primary driver of modern extinctions is
habitat loss, while climate change is projected to become the leading cause of biodiversity loss
in the future. To mitigate these impacts and reverse these trends, nations have committed to
halt the extinction of threatened species by mid-century, and to protect 30% of global land and
sea by 2030 (known as the ‘30 by 30’ target). There is now an urgent need to understand how
such targets can be achieved in a way that is deliverable, effective, and resilient to future
climate and land use change. To answer this question, my thesis considers how systematic
conservation planning approaches can optimise conservation interventions both in situ (such
as protected area planning) and ex situ (such as conservation of threatened species in zoos).
I show that both existing protected areas and current zoo collections must evolve significantly
if they are to avoid being outpaced by anthropogenic environmental change.
First, I model the impact of climate change on most of the world’s terrestrial vertebrate species
(n = 24,598), and identify spatial and phylogenetic shifts in the distribution of threatened
biodiversity globally. Using these data, I highlight spatial priorities for area-based conservation,
achieving 30 by 30 in a manner that maximises the long-term conservation of threatened
evolutionary history under environmental change. I then turn to ex situ conservation in zoos,
finding that collections must adapt significantly if they are to conserve the taxa most threatened
by climate and land use change. As zoos must house appealing species that drive visitation
rates, I then investigate the traits that underpin species attractiveness to zoo visitors, with highly
active, visible mammals proving the most attractive. I use these results to highlight
opportunities to leverage species appeal and maximise investment in conservation. Finally, I
bring this information together and apply, for the first time, conservation optimisation algorithms
to zoo collection planning at global and regional scales. Such approaches can increase the
protection of threatened evolutionary history by approximately an order of magnitude, both in
situ and ex situ, relative to existing protected areas and zoo collections, respectively. These
results pose both a challenge and an opportunity to the conservation community, highlighting
both the scale of adaptation required, but also the huge potential conservation benefits that
could be achieved, even as anthropogenic climate and land use change intensify.