Turkish Foreign Policy towards Iran since the Arab Uprisings (December 2010 to July 2018): A Neoclassical Realist Account

Abstract

With the outbreak of the Arab Uprisings across the Middle East and North Africa at the end of 2010, regional and global state actors, including Turkey and Iran, sought to shape and manage these political and social phenomena in alignment with their regional interests and objectives. Although Turkey’s foreign policy towards Iran was initially tense, it later became more manageable due to specific unit-level factors. In this context, the Arab Uprisings offer the historical context by which to assess how Turkish Foreign Policy (TFP) towards Iran was shaped and conducted. This thesis explores the rationale behind TFP towards Iran since the Arab Uprisings by asking two central questions:

1. To what extent did structural forces shape the formulation of Turkish foreign policy towards Iran following the Arab Uprisings, from December 2010–July 2018?
2. How did unit-level (domestic) factors interact with structural imperatives in shaping Turkish foreign policy towards Iran following the Arab Uprisings, from December 2010–July 2018?

Consequently, the thesis uses the perception and domestic security and economic considerations of the AKP elites as intervening variables to clarify the cause-effect relationship between systemic changes and the relative power position of Turkey (as independent variables) to examine the TFP towards Iran (the dependent variable) in the short to medium term. In this regard, NCR provides a useful theoretical framework for the intervening variables to explain the causal link between independent and dependent variables. Schweller’s balance of interest theory also helps explain Turkey’s alliance choice with Iran, considering Turkey’s economic and security considerations. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of TFP and TFP towards Iran in particular by establishing a conceptual framework through the use of NCR while also providing fresh insights concerning the key variables connected to foreign relations and domestic politics in TFP towards Iran. In short, the empirical goal of this work is to provide an innovative contribution to the study of TFP from a theory-driven standpoint. As a result, this thesis provides a solid foundation for scholars to build on and use NCR in future research that explores the actions of state actors facing seismic regional shifts and new security challenges.