A Multilevel Perspective for an Energy Transition in the Power Generation Sector of the GCC Countries

Abstract

As a result of a combination of concerns related to the climate change issue, energy security, and the inevitable depletion of fossil fuels, the energy system of the world economy is, indeed, at the early stage of a gradual and sustained energy transition.
The future of the energy system of the GCC economies will strongly depend on this world tendency, as they are one of the main producers and providers of hydrocarbons to the world economy, and their economies rely almost entirely on the hydrocarbons on two aspects: first of all, as a source of revenue and therefore a core element of their political economy and secondly, hydrocarbons constitute the only energy source fuelling the economic engine of the GCC countries. Moreover, the economies of the Gulf are under an increased pressure to diversify their energy mix for the following reasons: they have one of the largest carbon footprint per capita in the world, and the ever-increasing domestic consumption of electricity is putting an increasing pressure on the available reserves of hydrocarbons to the export market.
Grounded on this new international energy environment and the challenges facing the GCC countries to diversify their energy sources in the long-term, it is proposed through this study to explore through scenarios the possible transition pathway for engaging the GCC economies into an energy transition in their power generation sector up to 2050 and how this objective could be shaped within the context of a hydrocarbon-rich rentier economic system. The scenario methodology will be used within the concept of energy transitions and the multi-level perspective (MLP) framework of analysis, which will allow for a systemic analysis of the energy system of the GCC countries and for identifying the forces that will be at work for potential future energy transitions.