Prediction in Karl Marx

Abstract

The thesis begins with an analysis of the 'three component sources' used by Marx in order to give context to the body of the thesis and to give a background to the concentration on Marx’s theory of revolution as a central concern. Marx's theory of revolution is then analysed into its various aspects and a question is raised about the relationship of its purely economic aspects to those aspects involving political will. It is suggested that Marx’s development and use of the concept of alienation is a key link between the economic and political and a brief analysis of his use of alienation follows. In conclusion it is stressed that Marx used this concept as an aid to the analysis and development of his economic theories although a brief analysis of his published work shows that he intended the economic aspects of his theory of revolution to stand alone. Thus attention is once more focussed on his theory of revolution and the economic analysis that underpins it. Each of its elements is explained and assessed in terms of the predictive mechanism used enabling a final conclusion that a socialist revolution as a possibility seems proven but that as a necessary historical event it does not.